Data on Effectiveness

From Postcards to Voters: "Based on turnout for the 2016 General Election, looking at so-called "hot" Democratic voters, VBM ones were 5% MORE likely to cast their ballots than non-VBM ones. Among "warm" Dems, the increase among VBM voters was 34%. Looking at just the turnout from "cold" voters, (those who had NOT voted in EITHER 2012 or 2014 General elections), VBM turnout was 174% higher than the non-VBM voters! And finally, among brand new voters with no past history, but they were registered Democrats, when they voted by mail, they were 47% more likely to do so than their non-VBM peers."

From Blue Wave Analytics, 2019: "Prior studies have found that postcards to voters have a small positive effect on voter turnout. The impact lies somewhere between purely commercial mailers and a phone call not as effective as a phone call but more effective than a commercial mailer. This small, positive effect, however, adds up when millions of postcards are written by volunteers which is what happened in the 2018 election cycle. Our study found that such postcards appear to be more effective overall with younger voters (under 45) than older voters (45+). In addition, Democratic voters residing in Red states were more positively impacted by the postcards than those in Blue states... Registered Democrats like these postcards. Only 12% indicate they would throw it away without reading. Over half would at least read/skim it before throwing it away. Close to a third would keep it and/or share it. 31% would pay more attention to the election; 22% more likely to vote; 30% more likely to vote for this candidate; 23% more likely to make sure others are registered to vote."

From VoteFwd: "In the Alabama Senate special in 2017, turnout among letter recipients was 3.9 percentage points higher vs. a control group (3.4 percentage points after controlling for age, gender, and other factors in an analysis by Analyst Institute). In a larger experiment in Ohio’s 12th district in August, we saw a 1.44 percentage point effect [analysis by Annie Wang]."

This includes all campaigns that are available for pick up, as well as those that are not but are being worked on at home

VoteFwd letters to unlikely voters to turn them out for November in AL, AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, KS, MI, MN, MS, NC, OH, PA, SC, TX, and WI (return to me by 10/17).


How are these chosen? Why some weeks is there more for some states/campaigns than others? Short answer: priority vs. availability. When I request materials from various organizations, I use our plan for 2020 as a guide; i.e., I ask for more addresses for tier 1 priority than tier 4. Sometimes, there are no campaigns available for our highest priority, so the attention is shifted toward-lower level priorities. At other times, a particular campaign may be urgent, so it may appear outsized during that week. But always, I keep eyes on the prize.