Plan To Win In 2026
Tier 1: Multi-Target for 2026




Tier 2: House-Focused
Toss-up districts: CA-13 (Gray won by D+0.08%), CA-45 (Tran won by D+0.2%)
Lean-R flippable: CA-22 (Valadao won by 6.8%), CA-40 (Kim won by 10.6%), CA-41 (Calvert won by 3.4%)
Lean-D vulnerable: CA-09 (Harder won by 3.6%), CA-27 (Whitesides won by 2.6%), CA-47 (Min won by 2.8%)
Toss-up districts: NY-04 (Gillen won by D+2.4%)
Lean-R flippable: NY-17 (Lawler won by 6.3%)
Lean-D vulnerable: NY-03 (Suozzi won by 3.6%), NY-19 (Riley won by 2.2%)
Tier 3: Also Important
Tier 4: We Wish
To be able to do anything in the Senate, we must keep all D seats AND flip R seats, no matter how difficult it will be
Why make an electoral plan? One of the core goals of this group has been preserving and driving electoral change. We will continue to do what we have been good at doing: registering, informing, and persuading voters by postcards, letters, and phone calls. Despite the heartbreaking losses of 2024, all the research I've seen says that these strategies work (as part of a larger program of messaging, persuasion, calling, canvassing, and fundraising, of course!).
This doesn't prevent us from doing other important work: to preserve our ability to make electoral change and generally resist Trump's destruction of America. This involves educating the public on the harm being done, especially in key states, collaborating with other local groups to take direct action through protests and other civic actions, training on the best organizing and outreach methods, and more.
What is this electoral plan based on? The plan focuses on the biggest bang for the buck as well as some "love". That means top priorities are the "multi-target" states that with our focus could win the governorship, the US Senate seat, flip or defend key US House seats, and flip the state legislature. The lowest priority are "love" campaigns that may not be as likely to win but important to building long-term Dem presence. I base the plan on the research completed by Cook's Political Report, The Downballot, Sister District, Swing Left, polling averages, and other sources.
Last updated Oct.31, 2025.
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