Tier 1: Triple Wins

  1. defend Mark Kelly in US Senate won by 2.4% in 2020 (special election, up again '22), rated lean D
  2. elect Dem governor open election, rated toss-up, in 2018 incumbent R+14%
  3. legislature flip 2 seats for Senate, 2 for House; in 2020 4 R Senate seats won by <10%
  1. elect Dem Senator to the US Senate open election, rated toss-up, R+13% in 2018
  2. elect Dem governor open election, rated toss-up, in 2018 incumbent D+17%
  3. legislature longer-term flip opportunity 6 seats for Senate, 12 for House; in 2020 2 R Senate seats won by <10%, 13 R House seats won by <10%
  1. defend Raphael Warnock in US Senate won by 2% in 2020 (special election, up again '22), rated lean D
  2. defeat Brian Kemp as GA governor vote-suppressed Stacey Abrams by 1.4% in 2018, rated lean R
  3. legislature longer-term flip opportunity 7 seats for Senate, 14 for House; in 2020 2 R Senate seats won by <10%, 13 R House seats won by <10%

Tier 2: US Senate ++

maintain D seats and flip a few Rs, change state legislatures

WI
flip R seat (currently Ron Johnson who may run again) rated toss-up (D+10% in 2018)
re-elect Tony Evers as governor rated toss-up (won by 1% in 2018)
legislature longer-term flip opportunity 2 seats for Senate, 12 for House; in 2020 2 R Senate seats won by <10%, 8 R House seats won by <10%
NC
flip R seat (currently Richard Burr, retiring) R+2% in 2020
legislature longer-term flip opportunity 4 seats for Senate, 10 for House; in 2020 4 R Senate seats won by <10%, 12 R House seats won by <10%
FL
defeat Marco Rubio won by 8% 2016, another FL senator (R) won by 0.2% in 2018, rated lean R
defeat Ron deSantis and elect a Dem governor won by 0.4% in 2018, rated lean R
legislature longer-term flip opportunity 5 seats for Senate, 19 for House; in 2020 3 R Senate seats won by <10%, 16 R House seats won by <10%
NV
defend Catherine Cortez Masto won by 2.4% in 2016, other D won by 5% in 2018, rated lean D
legislature hold controlled by D, only 2 seat majority in the State Senate
NH
defend Maggie Hassan won by 0.1% in 2016, rated lean D
legislature flip opportunity 3 seats for Senate, 14 for House; in 2020 4 R Senate seats won by <10%, 33 R House seats won by <10%

Tier 3: Also Important

OH:
try to flip R seat in the Senate open seat; current R frontrunner is an odious protofascist Josh Mandel (2nd close behind is a fake populist JD Vance); last OH senator Sherrod Brown (D) won by 7% in 2018, but the retiring R senator won by 21% in 2016; rated 'lean R'
TX:
defeat R Governor Abbott R won by 13% 2018; rated likely R
legislature longer-term flip opportunity 9 seats to flip the House; in 2020, 16 R House seats won by <10%

Tier 4: We Wish

CA:
try to get rid of some of our Rs in the US House of Representatives

In 2020 they won by: Garcia (0.2% against Christy Smith, CA-25), Valadao (1% against TJ Cox, CA-21), Kim (1.2% against Gil Cisneros, CA-39), Steel (2.2% against Rouda, CA-48), Issa (8% against Ammar Campa-Najjar, CA-50), Nunes (8.4% against Phil Arballo, CA-22), McClintock (12%, CA-4), Obernolte (12%, CA-8), LaMalfa (14%, CA-1), Calvert (14%, CA-42), McCarthy (24%, CA-23)

What is this based on? The plan focuses on the biggest bang for the buck as well as some "love". That means top priorities are the "triple-threat" states that with our focus could win the governorship, the US Senate seat, and flip the legislature, then slightly lower priority are "double-threat" - plausible Senate seats and state legislature or governorship, slightly lower than that are less likely "double-threats", and lowest priority are "love" campaigns that have some emotional resonance that may not be likely to win but important to building long-term Dem presence or have local concerns. I base the plan on research completed by Sister District, Daily Kos forecasting team, Cook's Political Report, 538 poll aggregates, and Swing Left, among others.

Updated December 3, 2021: updated WI & NV governor race rankings; weighing adding MI & MN.

Updated November 13, 2021: created new state rankings and updated 2020 election results; incorporated good news about NH Senate seat.