Tier 1: Quadruple Wins

  1. elect a Democrat to the US Senate Sinema (D) won by 2.4% in 2018 (not running as D in 2024), Mark Kelly (D) by 5% in 2022; seat rated toss-up
  2. key to presidential elections Biden won by 0.3%
  3. 2 key US House seats toss-up R-flip seats AZ-01, AZ-06
  4. state legislature flip flip 2 seats to flip State Senate, 2 seats to flip State House; in 2022, 3 R Senate seats won by <10%
  1. defend Bob Casey Jr. in US Senate won by 13% in 2018; Fetterman (D) won by 5% in 2022, race rated lean-D
  2. key to presidential elections Biden won by 1%
  3. 3 key US House seats lean-D PA-17, toss-up D seats PA-07 and PA-08
  4. state legislature flip flip 3 seats to flip PA State Senate; in 2022, 3 R Senate seats won by <10%

Tier 2: US Senate ++

must keep the Senate

WI
keep D seat rated lean D (currently Tammy Baldwin, won by 11% in 2018, R+1% in 2022)
key to presidential elections Biden won by 0.63%
legislature longer-term flip opportunity 6 seats for Senate, 15 for House; in 2020 2 R Senate seats won by <10%, 8 R House seats won by <10%
OH
keep D seat rated as toss-up (currently Sherrod Brown, won by 7% in 2018, but R+6% in 2022)
3 key US House seats lean-D OH-01 and OH-09, toss-up D seat OH-13

Tier 3: Flip the House, Keep the Senate

NY:
NY-03 toss-up (Santos expelled), lean D NY-18; R toss-up NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, NY-22
CA:
try to get rid of some of our Rs in the US House of Representatives:
Toss-up districts: CA-13 (Duarte won by R+0.4%), CA-22 (Valadao won by R+3%), CA-27 (Garcia won by R+6%), CA-41 (Calvert won by R+5%)
Lean-R flippable: CA-45 (Steel won by R+5%)
Lean-D vulnerable: CA-47 (now held by Katie Porter, won by D+3%)
Vulnerable Dem Senators:
MI open seat
MT John Tester
NV Jacky Rosen

Tier 4: We Wish

To keep the Senate, we must flip a seat, no matter how difficult it will be

TX:
flip the seat held by Ted Cruz and inspire new generation of TX activists won by 3% in 2018; John Cornyn (R) won by 10% in 2020; seat rated likely R
FL:
flip the seat held by Rick Scott and help revive FL Democratic party won by 0.2% in 2018; Marco Rubio (R) won by 16% in 2022; seat rated likely R

What is this based on? The plan focuses on the biggest bang for the buck as well as some "love". That means top priorities are the "triple-threat" states that with our focus could win the governorship, the US Senate seat, and flip the legislature or swing states for the presidential election, then slightly lower priority are "double-threat" - plausible Senate seats and state legislature or governorship, slightly lower than that are less likely "double-threats", and lowest priority are "love" campaigns that have some emotional resonance that may not be likely to win but important to building long-term Dem presence or have local concerns. I base the plan on research completed by Sister District, Daily Kos forecasting team, Cook's Political Report, 538 poll aggregates, and Swing Left, among others.

Created Nov.26, 2023.